Succession of Jiang Zemin
Since its foundation in 1949 the Chinese government under the Communist Party has been plagued with unsuccessful and violent transitions of power. Although Jiang Zemin, then 76, stepped down from the powerful Politburo Standing Committee to make way for a younger
fourth generation of leadership with Hu at its helm, there was speculation that Jiang would retain significant influence because Hu is not associated with Jiang's influential
Shanghai clique, to which six out of the nine new members of the all-powerful Standing Committee were believed to be linked. However, later developments show that many of its members have shifted their positions, with
Huang Ju and
Li Changchun being the only staunch Jiang supporters remaining. In 2003, Jiang was also reelected to the post of Chairman of the
Central Military Commission of the CPC, a post from which
Deng Xiaoping was able to wield power from behind the scenes as
paramount leader, thus retaining military power.
Western observers attribute a sense of caution to Hu's philosophies, citing China's recent history of fallen heirs. Deng Xiaoping appointed three party secretaries, all designed to be successors, and was instrumental in the ousting of two of them,
Hu Yaobang and
Zhao Ziyang. His third and final selection, Jiang Zemin, won Deng's ambiguous, although continued backing and was the only party secretary in Communist Chinese history to voluntarily leave his post when his term ended.
Although many believe Hu was originally hand-picked by Deng as the youngest member of China's top leadership and a leading candidate to succeed Jiang, he had exercised a great deal of political skills between 1992 and 2002 to consolidate his position, and eventually emerged as Jiang's heir apparent in his own right. Hu also benefited from the slow but progressive institutionalization of power succession within the Party. As a result, attempts to draw parallels with regards to Hu's succession is unreasonable. Since the early 1980s, the
People's Republic of China has been marked by progressive institutionalization and rule by
consensus, and moved away from the Maoist authoritarian model. Although a western-style legal institution and rule of law remain to be put in place, Hu's power succession was conducted in a fairly orderly and civil manner, which was unprecedented in Communist China's history. This trend is expected to continue and an institutionalized mechanism of power transition is expected to emerge, first perhaps within the Party. In fact, it has been one of the Party's stated major goals to create an orderly system of succession and mechanism to prevent informal rule and a
cult of personality.
The rivalry between Jiang and Hu after Jiang stepped down from his posts was, arguably, an inevitable product of China's tradition of succession. Some analysts argue that although Jiang has consolidated power by the time he retired, his ideological stature within the Communist Party remains shaky at best, thus Jiang had to buy time to ensure that his ideological legacy such as the
Three Represents, is enshrined in China's socialism doctrine. Jiang resigned as Chairman of the
Central Military Commission in September 2004, his last official post. Whether this is the result of pressure from Hu or a personal decision is up for speculation. Since then Hu has officially taken on the three institutions in the People's Republic of China where power lie, the state, the party, as well as the
military, thus informally, has become the
paramount leader. The Hu-Jiang split, however, remains. Officially, Hu has been promoting Jiang's legacy by beginning a mass campaign in August 2006 promoting the
Selected Works of Jiang Zemin, a collection of speeches and essays documenting Jiang's philosophies.
Hu and Premier
Wen Jiabao inherited a China wrought with internal social, political and environmental problems. One of the biggest challenges Hu faces is the large wealth disparity between the Chinese rich and poor, for which discontent and anger mounted to a degree which wreaked havoc on communist rule. Furthermore, the
cronyism and corruption plaguing China's
civil service, military, educational, judicial and medical systems sought to destroy the country bit by bit. In the beginning of 2006 however, Hu launched the "
8 Honours and 8 Disgraces" movement in a bid to promote a more selfless and moral outlook amongst the population. China's increasingly fragile environment has caused massive
urban pollution, sandstorms and the destruction of vast tracts of habitable land. It remains to be seen if Hu, usually cautious in nature, is capable of managing the continued peaceful development of China while avoiding international incidents, at the same time presiding over an unprecedented increase in Chinese
nationalist sentiment.