The
1948 presidential election is best remembered for Truman's stunning come-from-behind victory. In the spring of 1948, Truman's public approval rating stood at 36 percent, and the president was nearly universally regarded as incapable of winning the general election. The "New Deal" operatives within the party—including FDR's son
James—tried to swing the Democratic nomination to General
Dwight D. Eisenhower, a wildly popular figure whose political views—and party affiliation—were totally unknown. Eisenhower emphatically refused to accept, and Truman outflanked opponents to his nomination.
At the
1948 Democratic National Convention, Truman attempted to calm turbulent domestic political waters by placing a tepid civil rights plank in the party platform; the aim was to assuage the internal conflicts between the northern and southern wings of his party. Events overtook the president's efforts at compromise, however. A sharp address given by Mayor
Hubert Humphrey of
Minneapolis—as well as the local political interests of a number of urban bosses—convinced the Convention to adopt a stronger civil rights plank, which Truman approved wholeheartedly. All of
Alabama's delegates, and a portion of Mississippi's, walked out of the convention in protest. Unfazed, Truman delivered an aggressive acceptance speech attacking the 80th Congress and promising to win the election and "make these Republicans like it."
Within two weeks, Truman issued
Executive Order 9981, racially
integrating the U.S. Armed Services. Truman took considerable political risk in backing civil rights, and many seasoned Democrats were concerned that the loss of
Dixiecrat support might destroy the Democratic Party. The fear seemed well justified—
Strom Thurmond declared his candidacy for the presidency and led a full-scale revolt of Southern "
states' rights" proponents. This revolt on the right was matched by a revolt on the left, led by former Vice President
Henry A. Wallace on the
Progressive Party ticket. Immediately after its first post-FDR convention, the Democratic Party found itself disintegrating. Victory in November seemed a remote possibility indeed, with the party not simply split but divided three ways.
There followed a remarkable 21,928 mile presidential odyssey, an unprecedented personal appeal to the nation. Truman and his staff crisscrossed the United States in the presidential train; his "
whistlestop" tactic of giving brief speeches from the rear platform of the
observation car Ferdinand Magellan came to represent the entire campaign. His combative appearances, such as those at the town square of
Harrisburg, Illinois, captured the popular imagination and drew huge crowds. Six stops in
Michigan drew a combined total of half a million people; a full million turned out for a
New York City ticker-tape parade.
The large, mostly spontaneous gatherings at Truman's depot events were an important sign of a critical change in momentum in the campaign—but this shift went virtually unnoticed by the national press corps, which continued reporting Republican
Thomas Dewey's apparent impending victory as a certainty. One reason for the press's inaccurate projection was polls conducted primarily by telephone in a time when many people, including much of Truman's populist base, did not own a telephone. "(E)lection polls have found, that the use of telephone surveys doesn't include lots of people who don't have telephones. That can lead to disastrous results, as it did in the Dewey-Truman election in 1948."</bgref> This skewed the data to indicate a stronger support base for Dewey than existed, resulting in an unintended and undetected projection error that may well have contributed to the perception of Truman's bleak chances. The three major polling organizations also stopped polling well before the
November 2 election date—Roper in September, and Crossley and Gallup in October—thus failing to measure the very period when Truman appears to have surged past Dewey. "Roper finished polling in September, Crossley’s last poll was October 18, and Gallup stopped polling after October 28."</bgref> "Roper quit polling on September the ninth."</bgref>
In the end, Truman held his midwestern base of progressives, won most of the Southern states despite his civil rights plank, and squeaked through with narrow victories in a few critical "battleground" states, notably
Ohio,
California, and
Illinois. The final tally showed that the president had secured 303 electoral votes, Dewey 189, and Thurmond only 39. Henry Wallace got none. The defining image of the campaign came after Election Day, when Truman held aloft the erroneous front page of the
Chicago Tribune with a huge headline proclaiming "Dewey Defeats Truman."
Truman's no-holds-barred style of campaigning in the face of seemingly impossible odds became a campaign tactic that would be repeated by, and appealed to by, many presidential candidates in years to come, notably
George H. W. Bush in
1992, another trailing incumbent who fought constantly with Congress.
Truman did not have a vice president in his first term. Until the ratification of the
Twenty-fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution in 1967, there was no provision for filling a mid-term vacancy in the office of vice president.</bgref> His running mate, and eventual vice president for the term that began
January 20 1949, was
Alben W. Barkley.